Urgent: 753 Million at Risk of 'Day-Zero-Droughts' by 2100
Urgent action is needed as climate change threatens to exacerbate water scarcity, with cities particularly vulnerable. A new forecast by Ravinandrasana and Franzke warns that by 2100, up to 753 million people worldwide, including 467 million in urban areas, could face extreme water shortages, or 'Day-Zero-Droughts'.
Under moderate climate protection measures (SSP2-4.5), 51% of today's drought-prone regions will be at high risk by 2100. Even areas with large reservoirs are not immune, as droughts can cause reservoirs to dry up. Some hotspots may experience 'Day-Zero-Droughts' as early as this decade. Between 2020 and 2030, regions in the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America could face these shortages for the first time.
By 2100, nearly three-quarters of today's drought-prone regions will not be able to provide water to their residents at some point due to climate change. Regions in southern Europe, the Mediterranean, and parts of California are particularly at risk, with 'Day-Zero-Droughts' possibly occurring within the next few decades, around 2040 to 2060. Under high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), 74% of today's drought-prone regions will be exposed to high risk of severe and prolonged drought by 2100. Heatwaves, low-rainfall dry periods, and droughts will become more frequent and last longer, increasing the risk of 'Day-Zero-Droughts'.
Proactive water management strategies are crucial to prepare for future 'Day-Zero-Droughts'. Cities should urgently adopt water-saving plans, similar to those implemented in Cape Town. These measures can help mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure water security for communities worldwide.
