Tourism in Hawaii experiences a decrease during the summer, indicated by declining visitor numbers.
Hawaii's tourism industry, a vital part of the state's economy, is facing a slowdown, with signs of potential softness through 2026.
According to recent data, the overall airfare component of the travel price index shows a 3.5% decrease for June 2025, but motor fuel dropped 8.2%, a trend that works against destinations like Hawaii. Despite this, visitor spending in June rose by 2.8% compared to the same month in 2024. However, arrivals from Hawaii's second-largest source market, the U.S. East, fell by 3.8%, and arrivals from Japan, the largest international market, dropped by 4.3%. Arrivals from all other international markets outside of Japan and Canada fell by 8.6%.
The Hawai'i Tourism Authority (HTA) is taking steps to boost tourism. In collaboration with the Los Angeles Rams, they are launching a yearlong Los Angeles market activation campaign to promote tourism on Maui. However, the $6.3 million investment in Maui tourism is lower than the marketing and sales budget for a single hotel and is less than 1% of the more than $1 billion in tax revenue generated for the state.
Economic reports highlight robust construction activity, especially tied to Maui rebuilding efforts. Yet, they also caution about potential headwinds from slowing tourism, rising unemployment, and inflation, which is expected to increase to about 4.6% in 2026, partly due to tariffs on imports. The visitor segment is particularly affected by inflation pressures, which may depress demand going into 2026.
Regarding the Hawaii Convention Center, no specific information about repairs or impacts on tourism was found in the current search results. It remains unclear if any ongoing or planned repair work at the Convention Center will directly influence visitor arrivals or spending in 2025-2026.
Industry experts express concerns about the current state of Hawaii tourism. Josh Hargrove, general manager of The Westin Maui Resort &Spa, stated that June 2025 wasn't as successful as hoped, with an occupancy rate around 75%, compared to mid-80s percentile pre-pandemic. Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai'i Hotel Alliance, stated that the average daily room rate was off about 18% from what hoteliers had budgeted across the islands in June 2025.
Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates, Hospitality Consulting, stated that Hawaii has had a minimal tourism marketing effort since the pandemic. Chris Kam, president and chief operating officer of Omnitrak TravelTrak America, mentioned that more U.S. residents traveled in June 2025 compared to June 2024, but nationwide air passenger counts dropped 1%.
Despite these challenges, there are signs of resilience. More kamaaina travelers are staycationing, and Hawaii saw slightly more U.S. West travelers in June 2025, likely because they were better positioned to respond to last-minute booking specials. Arrivals from Hawaii's largest visitor source market, the U.S. West, grew by 0.8% in June 2025.
In summary, while Hawaii tourism showed resilience with spending growth and stable arrivals in early 2025, a noticeable slowdown in arrivals during mid-2025 combined with inflationary challenges suggests potential softness in the tourism economy through 2026. The sector faces a complex outlook balancing reconstruction demand with these economic headwinds.
The potential softness in Hawaii's tourism economy through 2026 could impact the business traffic to the state, as a slowdown in arrivals and inflationary challenges might deter travelers. On the other hand, the resilience shown by kamaaina travelers indicative of staycationing and the slight increase in U.S. West travelers present an opportunity for tourism businesses to adapt and adjust their lifestyle strategies accordingly, focusing on attracting these market segments effectively.
