Putin's CTBT Withdrawal Threatens Global Nuclear Order
In a move that could have far-reaching implications, Russian President Vladimir Putin 'de-ratified' the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in November 2023. This action risks undermining the global nuclear order and raises concerns about renewed arms races and even nuclear use.
The CTBT, designed to prohibit all nuclear explosions, has been in limbo since its inception in 1996. Its entry into force has been blocked by key Annex 2 states, including the USA, China, and Russia, which only recently withdrew its ratification. This refusal has weakened the treaty's credibility and setbacks broader nuclear non-proliferation efforts.
Nuclear testing has a dark history, deeply rooted in colonialism, racism, and oppression. It has caused harm to people and the environment, with the first test marking the 80th anniversary in 2025. A return to testing would disregard established norms and agreements, further undermining the global nuclear order.
Maren Vieluf, a prominent nuclear disarmament advocate, stresses the importance of defending the test ban. She warns that a return to testing could lead to an escalation in nuclear capabilities, threatening global stability. Technological advances have made nuclear testing obsolete, making any new test a purely political act.
Even without overt violations, states contribute to the erosion of the nuclear order through subtle, habitual actions that contradict its core principles. The nuclear order balances inherently contradictory goals - deterrence, arms control, non-proliferation, and disarmament - making it a delicate equilibrium.
Putin's decision to 'de-ratify' the CTBT has raised serious concerns about the future of the global nuclear order. The refusal of key states to ratify the treaty, along with the withdrawal of Russia's ratification, has weakened its credibility. The world must now grapple with the potential consequences of a return to nuclear testing, which could lead to renewed arms races and undermine the delicate balance of the nuclear order.
